Apparently I missed last week’s post… Sorry about that.  I went 4-3 with wins on Arkansas, UCLA, Baylor and Rice and losses on Bama, Oregon State and TCU.

I actually really love this week’s card, however, I love too many games and that can cause a problem. Last week I loved Iowa and Kansas, yet neither found their way onto my card.  This week you’ll see Penn State, among others absent, yet I really think the Nittany Lions get it done this week.

Also, the last 4 weeks challenge started last week and I believe there was only 1 person to go 7-0 and about six that went 6-1, so I’m still in the running, but probably need to hit a 5-2 or better this week to stand a chance as last year I had a total of 5 losses in the last 4 weeks.

My week 10 picks are:

• Oregon +3.5 at Stanford
• Michigan State -2.5 at Iowa
• Pitt +2.5 at Louisville
• Illinois -.5 vs. Michigan
• Auburn +13.5 at Georgia
• East Carolina +3.5 at UTEP
• WVU +3.5 at Cincinnati

What’s interesting on this week’s card is I am betting almost all of these games, save the ECU game, which typically happens.  However, over the last few weeks, I’ve tried to get cute and instead of picking another lean and just leaving one or two leans off the card, I”ll pick an obscure game that I think may hit. I did this a couple of weeks ago with Ball State and it hit and did it last week with TCU and it lost, so who really knows.

My other leans are, Penn State, as I said above, along with Rice, Texas and Akron.

Hoping for 6-1 or 7-0, but will take 5-2.  It’ll also be a great afternoon or an awful afternoon as I believe four or five on my games are on at 9am PST (where I’m located), so my noon, I’ll know my fate…

Until next week…

Just when I’m about to turn the corner, I hit another wall.  After going a combined 18-10 the last 4 weeks, it was another soul-crossing 2-5 week.  It will now take a miracle to reach the top 10 in the overall contest. My sights are now set on the Last 4 Weeks contest, which I talked about last week, and that starts next week until the end of the season.

Once again, most of my picks were not close- UNC, WMU, ULL and Wash all got blown out more or less. NW continues to disappoint and there is no excuse there, the Cats should have absolutely covered and probably won that game.  I think this is the 3rd time this season NW has been shut out in the 2nd half of games.  Not sure how that happens, but we move on.  NC State was in an amazing situational spot last week and won outright and Ball State won, even though I didn’t even bet that game.

Onto this week we go.  There really wasn’t too much on the card I liked outside of UGA over Florida.  I think Georgia wins out and takes the SEC East title and this would be a big win for Richt and the Bulldogs.

My Week 8 picks are:

• UNC -6.5 vs. Wake
• Clemson -3.5 at GT
• Purdue +13.5 at Michigan
• Illinois +4.5 at Penn State
• Iowa State +14.5 at Texas Tech
• Georgia -2.5 vs. Florida
• UCLA +5.5 vs. Cal

Again, not too much else on the card, though of my picks, I do think UCLA and Illinois win outright.  The real contest for me starts next week with the Final 4 Week contest where I hope to defend my title.

Until next week…

Finally, a rock solid week. 6-1.. woohoo!!! Think I’m finally starting to see things clearly.  Only game I lost was UNC -2.5 and they decided to take the 1st half off.  MSU, VT, ECU, Nevada all cruised, while Navy lost but covered, while Virginia knocked off GT as a 8.5 point home underdog.

This week was needed in the worst way, as I’m now back over .500 on the season, though still need two or three more 5-2 or better weeks in a row before the last 4 week stretch starts in November.  Another nice part about this contest is the Last 4 weeks contest. Whoever has the most wins over the last 4 weeks gets 10% of the overall prize pool. I won that last year by going 5-2, 6-1, 7-0 & 5-2 over the last 4 weeks which equated to about $3500 in prize money, so even if you won’t cash in the overall contest, the last 4 weeks is still there to make some money.

Onto this week… Maybe this is a good problem to have, but I had a hard time snipping teams from my list as about 11 caught my eye.  I went with the 7 below, but left off some goodies.

My Week 7 Picks are:

• NC State +4.5 at Virginia
• UNC +10.5 at Clemson
• Western Michigan -12.5 at Eastern Michigan
• Ball State -1.5 vs. Central Michigan
• Northwestern +3.5 vs. Penn State
• Washington +20.5 at Stanford
• UL Lafayette -3 at Western Kentucky

Now, what’s strange is that I’m not betting the Ball State game, but because I couldn’t decide between my other leans, I just decided to throw that one into the mix, especially now because the Ball State line is creeping up towards 3.  My leans that I didn’t play are: Florida State, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois.

I am hoping I go 7-0 with my picks and 0-4 with the leans. Actually, I don’t want that because I bet all four of my leans at different numbers that were available at the contest, which is something I’ve touched on in a previous post. I really don’t like how Leroy’s typically rounds down with the hook. Perfect example is Northwestern +3.5.  NW was a 4 or 4.5 favorite just about the entire week, but for the contest, it got rounded down to 3.5. That same reasoning is why Missouri at +6.5 didn’t make the card, but Missouri +7.5 made my betting card.

For the record, out of the six games on my card that I did bet, I got a better number on ALL six of them.

Hopefully the hook won’t be my demise this week.

Until next week…

The gambling gods giveth and the gambling gods taketh away.  After going 5-2 my last two weeks and putting me on the cusp of the top 40, I crap the bed and go 2-5 for the second time in five weeks.  This is purely unacceptable.  The silver lining is I did go 2-1 on my leans.. yaaay!

Once again, most of my losses were not even close- Texas and Wyoming were simply over matched.  I knew the Iowa line was a trap, yet somehow had that one on my card, and once again, I fall victim to a 2nd half collapse with Northwestern, up 17.5 at the half (including the spread) getting outscored 28-0 in quarters 3 and 4 for me to lose.

This has been a frustrating up and down season to say the least.  I read a stat somewhere that if you would bet on the top 8 ranked teams each week, so far this year, you’d be hitting winners at an 80% clip.  That’s just nuts.  I’ve said before, I typically am a contrarian and when the public kills the books (read: Favorites and Overs), I get slaughtered.  For some reason, it’s very difficult for me to lay conference chalk knowing that I’m going with 75% of the public.

Moving onto this week, I’ve got a mixture of public plays and what I think are sharp plays.  Hopefully I can get hot as the contest still isn’t even half way over and last year, I was just over .500 before Halloween weekend hit and ended up in 5th overall.

My Week 6 picks are:

• Michigan State -1.5 vs. Michigan
• UNC -2.5 vs. Miami
• Navy +4.5 at Rutgers
• Virginia +7.5 vs. Georgia Tech
• Virginia Tech -6.5 at Wake
• East Carolina -15.5 at Memphis
• Nevada -29.5 vs. New Mexico

I don’t have too many leans this week that are not already on my card.  I mean, the bettor in me wants to take Texas, Miss State & Maryland, but I’m not going to pull the trigger on any of those… OK maybe Miss State if I can get 3.5.

Until next week…

After back to back 5-2 weeks, we’re starting to get back on track.  I said I loved Duke and would of taken off Hawaii, well both dogs won outright, so can’t get mad there.  I really had no business taking VT as I didn’t bet it or release that pick to any of my clients, but sometimes finding 7 games on a Saturday card you are confident in is tough and sometimes you just gotta take a chance.  Either way, it was still a good week.

However, before we continue, I need to point out my 2nd half meltdown of the week.  Come on down Colorado!  The Buffs somehow let WSU score 14 points in the final 2 minutes and change in the game that not only cost them a win, but cost me a 6-1 contest week (and my lunch money for the week).  But, alas, I digress.  I almost had two simultaneous collapses when GT mysteriously fumbled instead of taking a knee and allowing NC State to score 14 points in 30 seconds to only lose by 10.  Lucky for the contest, it’s all in 1/2 pt increments, so my GT -9.5 bet was safe.  My GT -10.5 “bar money” selection, however, was not.

Anyway, there’s only so much complaining I can do after going 10-4 the last two weeks, so let’s get to this week’s picks.  Interestingly enough, I loved Texas Tech +7 and up all week, but somehow didn’t include it on my card.  I actually found 10 games that I loved this week and had a hard time narrowing them down.  You will also see 6 of the 7 picks are underdogs.  That’s just the type of bettor I am. Typically from about week 4 on until Bowl Season, my card will primarily consist of underdogs.

My Week 5 picks are:

• Texas +9.5 vs. Oklahoma
• Iowa +3.5 at Penn State
• Miami, OH +2.5 vs. Army
• Southern Miss +2.5 at Navy
• Northwestern +7.5 vs. Michigan
• Missouri -3.5 at Kansas State
• Wyoming +11.5 at Utah State

In case you were wondering, my leans were Maryland +13.5, Boston College +20.5 & Tech +8.5.  BC and Maryland were on my board until Leroy’s decided to undercut the key numbers (Maryland from 14 to 13.5, BC from 21 to 20.5), so I decided to lay off.  (Though as a side note I have Maryland +15 and BC +21.5 for a couple peanuts.)

Hopefully the dogs will be barking come Saturday and yes, I may have to turn to this for extra motivation.

Until next week..

Well, well, so this is what a winning week feels like.  I can tell you- it feels good.. real good.

I may or may not have gotten lucky on the Syracuse -2.5 pick considering when I saw the XP go “in”, I knew it had missed. Maybe the gambling gods were simply apologizing for some of the 2nd half meltdowns I have had so far this year (ND v UM, A&M v Okie State), but nonetheless, I’ll take it.

The most underrated bet I had was ULL +17 at FIU. I figured they had a good shot to win outright, but didn’t take a flyer on the +525 ML at all   Either way one of my losses was Arkansas +11.5, but really, how does one handicap a fake FG, INT return and Punt return all for touchdowns?  Hogs probably were never going to win the game, but I could have gotten the cover if those 3 things didn’t happen.

My other loss was the second best meltdown of this young season as A&M took a 20-3 halftime lead at home, only to not score again until the waning moments of the 4th quarter.  Again, I thought I capped this game pretty good, when a Mike Sherman team simply lays down, it really lays down.

I didn’t really like this week’s card on Monday and Tuesday, but when I submitted my picks, I felt pretty good about them.  I also came to a revelation. I usually bet against the public, but since the public has been cleaning up the first month of the season, I have refused to let some of these really easy, but I’m scared to take them because everyone and their Mom is on them, games pass me by, which is why you will see games like Georgia Tech and Alabama on this week’s card.  Hey, if you can’t beat em, join em…

My week 4 picks are:

• Northwestern +7.5 at Illinois
• Rutgers +2.5 at Syracuse
• Georgia Tech -9.5 at NC State
• Colorado -2.5 vs. Washington State
• Alabama -3.5 at Florida
• Hawaii +3.5 at La Tech
• Virginia Tech -6.5 vs. Clemson

I fell in love with Duke +3.5 late yesterday, but my picks have already been locked. For the record, I would of taken off Hawaii and put on the Blue Devils, so let’s see how much cash that will cost me at seasons’ end.

Until next week…

Not the best week.. of course I write about making sure I go 3-4 or better each week and come out and lay an egg. Still a long way to go, marathon not a sprint and you can definetly afford 1 or 2 2-5 weeks, but have to turn it around this week and I actually like the card.

What’s funny is my 5 losses weren’t even close. Completely mis-read Ole Miss and Mich State, Florida State could have gone either way, Ohio State looked like complete ass and TCU had 1 bad quarter otherwise I would have cashed that one.

My week 3 picks are:

• Syracuse -2.5 vs. Toledo
• Arkansas +11.5 at Alabama
• Washington -1.5 vs. Cal
• UCLA +4.5 vs. Oregon State
• Texas A&M -4.5 vs. Oklahoma State
• Arizona State -2.5 vs. USC
• UL Laf +16.5 at Florida International

There were also some leans- I liked Florida State, San Diego State, Oregon and Wyoming, but didn’t know who to take out..

I’d love a 5-2 or better card and feel real good about it..

Until next week…

I finished tied for 5th last year and tied for 1st in the Last 4 weeks mini-contest.  I was surprised to see the amount of entries dip by just over 100 contestants, considering the Hilton’s SuperContest reported record numbers. CFB to me seems way easier to beat and the payoff for finishing in the top 10 off a $250 entry fee is a pretty positive EV.

OK, so Results..

Week 1: Went 3-4.. Lost by 1/2 point on UGA (had them at +2.5 in the contest)- Contest doesn’t allow ties and typically the 3′s, 7′s etc. are chopped down to 2.5′s and 6.5′s. However, I did 1 game by 1/2 point as I had Vandy -2.5 and they won by 3.  Last year I lost 9 games by 1/2 point and didn’t win a single game by 1/2 point, so hopefully the gambling gods are with me this season.

Onto week 2:  Just submitted my picks.  They are:

• Ole Miss -1.5 at Vandy
• Michigan State +4.5 at Notre Dame
• Texas Tech -20.5 at New Mexico
• Illinois -1.5 vs. Arizona State
• Florida State +3.5 vs. Oklahoma
• Ohio State +3.5 at Miami
• TCU -28.5 vs. UL Monroe

Really, the goal in this contest is not to get discouraged and try as best you can not to have a really bad week. One or two 1-6 weeks can really crush you. During the end of October 2010, I had b2b weeks of 2-5 and 1-6 and basically though my contest dreams ended. I finished November with a 5-2, 6-1, 7-0 and 5-2 record which jumped me all the way to 5th.  So consistency is the key here. 4-3 or 3-4 weeks are fine, sprinkle in some 5-2 and a 6-1 and that should be good enough to cash.

Will report back on how I did and look ahead to week 3 next week.

Chris

Typically, I’m not a fan of pre-season rankings and think there shouldn’t be any rankings released until October 1, you know, after we’ve actually SEEN teams play and can make INFORMED judgements.  Below are some initial thoughts on the poll.

Agree? Disagree? Let me know your thoughts below in the comments section or find me on Twitter @TracktheBet

SEC Teams a bit too high

Now, no one is debating that the SEC isn’t the best conference, because it is.  But some of these teams either need to be lower or not on the list at all.  #4 LSU seems about 10 spots too high. Tigers finished last year #8 and lost their best defensive player, have a MUCH more difficult schedule and still have Jordan Jefferson and his 7/10 TD/INT ratio as the QB.  Also, Auburn, Georgia & Florida ranked at all? This is baffling. Auburn, while coming off a dream season, returns a total number of starters that I can count on one hand & will play a top 10 schedule. Georgia, coming off an unimpressive 6-7 season, loses its only deep threat at WR in AJ Green and has major depth issues at the RB and OL positions. While Florida, returning a total of 9 starters (including a mere 3 on defense), is changing schemes on both sides of the ball. Now, I’m not saying these teams couldn’t potentially make the top 25, but to include them in the pre-season seems a bit ridiculous.

Texas?  Texas?

I assume the pundits at ESPN were allowed to vote online for this one?  This might be the first time a team finished under .500 in the Regular Season the year before and is ranked the following pre-season.  The Longhorns only return 10 starters (including 4 on offense and 2 on the OL), and while the talent is still there, why on Earth are we assuming Texas is going to rebound to 8 or 9 wins?  The schedule isn’t that easy, there’s a new defensive scheme and a new offensive coordinator and, oh yea, they won 5 games last year.  Just mind-boggling.

Too High Teams

• Stanford: Even with Luck returning. Losing Harbaugh and those major players off the OL might drag the Cardinal down to the teens
• Florida State: All the talent in the world.  I’ll believe the top 5 ranking when I see it
•  Oklahoma State: A top 10 ranking basically means 10-2 or better. Vegas has OSU’s season win total at 8. I’ll let you decide which outlet to believe

Too Low Teams

• Wisconsin: With the addition of Russel Wilson and his surrounding cast, think 10-2 or better is a good possibility
• Virginia Tech: Not because of the returning talent (not that much), but because the schedule is just so darn easy
• West Virginia: Not ranked? You saw what Dana Holgorsen did at Oklahoma State. WVU should run away with the Big East title and into the top 25

As always, for all my picks for the upcoming season, visit www.CopeMoney.com

Legends

1. Michigan State 9-3 (6-2)
2. Nebraska 8-4 (5-3)
3. Northwestern 7-5 (4-4)
4. Iowa 7-5 (4-4)
5. Michigan 5-7 (2-6)
6. Minnesota 4-8 (1-7)

Michigan State- Returns the majority of skill position players including three year starter at QB. Offensive line & Linebacker are the two question marks. If the O-line comes together nicely, Sparty has chance to win division & conference.

Play Against: @Nebraska- Not just because MSU has trouble winning big games on the road, but this comes after back-to-back home games vs. rival Michigan and Wisconsin.

Nebraska- Defense should be very solid and could very well steal a few games. I’m just not sold on the offense yet. We saw what effect bringing in a spread offense with heavy focus on the run did with Michigan once conference play play hit; not sure it’s going to have the same success like it did against the typically weak B12 defenses. Think Nebraska will be good, but schedule is really hard.

Play Against: @Wisconsin- Huskers should be 4-0 heading into this one. First B1G game, on the road, at night, not sure Nebraska stands a chance here. Hoping Badgers are 3-4 pt favorites as they should also be 4-0.

Northwestern- People tend to forget the Wildcats were really good last year before Persa (their entire offense) got hurt. If he is 100% this year, I like this team a lot. They were 7-3 before the Persa injury, and then went into the tank, losing three straight to end the year. They also gave up big leads to MSU & PSU last year and don’t have to play tOSU or Wisconsin.

Play Against: @Iowa- Cats are not the same team on the road as they are at home. Iowa, even though only 9 starters return, want payback for last year. Penn State also on deck where Northwestern blew a 21-0 lead last season, and might be caught looking ahead a bit.

Iowa- Hawkeyes should be under the radar with only 9 starters returning from last year’s team. Non-conf schedule could be tricky traveling to Iowa State and hosting Pitt in back-to-back weeks, but B10 schedule sets up nicely. There’s also no Ohio State or Wisconsin.

Play Against: @Purdue- Think the Boilers will be much better than anticipated. Game comes after @Minnesota (where Iowa lost last year), UM, MSU stretch and before Friday after Thanksgiving showdown with new rival Nebraska. Might be emotionally drained; hoping for 7+

Michigan- Hoke is a good coach and will probably turn around this program, but not this year. UM has a spread QB under center, no proven RBs, perhaps down to two good WRs, a defense that’s still a wreck and no kicker, not to mention changing schemes on both sides of the ball; think a less severe version of Rich Rod’s first season.

Play Against: vs. ND- Game of the Year lines posted at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas currently have ND pegged as a 3 point favorite. First night game at UM plus recent success against the Irish should help this line stay near a pick ‘em. UM faithful will load up on what Hoke has preached/delivered with recruiting, but the Irish just a better team on both sides of the ball in second year of Brian Kelly’s system.

Minnesota- This team isn’t very good, though I do like the Jerry Kill hire. Gray will be decent at home and in the non-conference, but otherwise, this team won’t be anything special.

Play Against: Hard to pick just one game I’ll be fading the Gophers, so let’s just say every conference road game and verse Miami, OH early in the year.